Local News

Big Snow This Weekend? Not So Fast…

todayJanuary 1, 2024 2

share close

2024 has rolled in on a much colder note across WNY, on the heels of one of the warmest Decembers in Rochester’s history. New year, new weather, right? We’ve already noticed weather maps floating around social media surrounding a potential winter storm affecting the region this weekend. As is typically the case, I’ve had several folks reach out asking whether this weekend “storm” is real or just a figment of our social media imagination.

First things first. Maps like the one above above, which is the raw Euro run that many of you can access for free online, do indeed showcase potential for accumulating snow this weekend. This model runs 4 times a day, every day. That means you can find a dozen different solutions over say, a 3-day period to hand pick the one that looks sexiest and run with it. Over these last few days, the Euro has shown a range from big snowstorm to literally not a single flake, often bouncing around back-and-forth with each model run. This is common, by the way, especially when we’re still a solid week out.

When still dealing with time frames of 5+ days out, we like leaning on ensemble modeling to establish a general picture of the range of options on the table. The logic is this: We KNOW both initial data put into a model and math the model is running to forecast the future are never perfect. Because of these inherent “issues”, ensemble modeling skews the data a bit, offering different variations or flavors to the sequence that attempt to establish a broader perspective of reasonable possibilities.

When this range of ensemble data is relatively cohesive, it lends confidence to the forecaster in a particular solution. When the range varies wildly, it serves as a red flag that confidence in any one particular solution should be taken with a grain of salt, often because more time is needed for the forecast to cook.

So where does this leave us with our weekend forecast? The range of options, at least from the Euro, takes the second path, varying wildly. Individual ensemble members range from big snowstorm to bone dry. Again, this is not uncommon. Worth noting, there is more clustering of ensemble members in the not-so-snowy range that those toward an extreme.

The bottom line is this: No one knows what a system is going to do a week out. As a weather consumer, be weary of social media posts isolating a single model solution. There are so many variables, especially the small scale stuff, that cannot be reasonably sampled during this time frame. And those smaller details are often more important to the ultimate solution than say, the biggern pattern that models can do a better job at handling this early.

So yes, we could deal with accumulating snow this weekend. The pattern certainly appears more favorable for active weather in the weeks ahead. Just don’t go canceling any weekend plans because you saw a post about a weekend snowstorm. We’ll let you know if/when that changes.

​ 2024 has rolled in on a much colder note across WNY, on the heels of one of the warmest Decembers in Rochester’s history. New year, new weather, right? We’ve already noticed weather maps floating around social media surrounding a potential winter storm affecting the region this weekend. As is typically the case, I’ve had several folks reach out asking whether this weekend “storm” is real or just a figment of our social media imagination.

First things first. Maps like the one above above, which is the raw Euro run that many of you can access for free online, do indeed showcase potential for accumulating snow this weekend. This model runs 4 times a day, every day. That means you can find a dozen different solutions over say, a 3-day period to hand pick the one that looks sexiest and run with it. Over these last few days, the Euro has shown a range from big snowstorm to literally not a single flake, often bouncing around back-and-forth with each model run. This is common, by the way, especially when we’re still a solid week out.

When still dealing with time frames of 5+ days out, we like leaning on ensemble modeling to establish a general picture of the range of options on the table. The logic is this: We KNOW both initial data put into a model and math the model is running to forecast the future are never perfect. Because of these inherent “issues”, ensemble modeling skews the data a bit, offering different variations or flavors to the sequence that attempt to establish a broader perspective of reasonable possibilities.

When this range of ensemble data is relatively cohesive, it lends confidence to the forecaster in a particular solution. When the range varies wildly, it serves as a red flag that confidence in any one particular solution should be taken with a grain of salt, often because more time is needed for the forecast to cook.

So where does this leave us with our weekend forecast? The range of options, at least from the Euro, takes the second path, varying wildly. Individual ensemble members range from big snowstorm to bone dry. Again, this is not uncommon. Worth noting, there is more clustering of ensemble members in the not-so-snowy range that those toward an extreme.

The bottom line is this: No one knows what a system is going to do a week out. As a weather consumer, be weary of social media posts isolating a single model solution. There are so many variables, especially the small scale stuff, that cannot be reasonably sampled during this time frame. And those smaller details are often more important to the ultimate solution than say, the biggern pattern that models can do a better job at handling this early.

So yes, we could deal with accumulating snow this weekend. The pattern certainly appears more favorable for active weather in the weeks ahead. Just don’t go canceling any weekend plans because you saw a post about a weekend snowstorm. We’ll let you know if/when that changes. Read More NewsRochesterFirst  

Written by:

Rate it

Previous post

Three man shot on Hawley Street, RPD investigates

Local News

Three man shot on Hawley Street, RPD investigates

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — A shooting on Hawley Street is under investigation after three men were sent to the hospital, according to the Rochester Police Department. Officers said they responded to Hawley Street around 4:50 a.m. Monday morning for the shooting, but the victim could not be found. Two dead, several critically injured after crash, fire outside Kodak Center During the investigation, they learned a man in his 30s arrived […]

todayJanuary 1, 2024 1

Post comments (0)

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Generated by Feedzy
0%