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T-minus 7 days. Will WNY be able to see the eclipse?

todayApril 1, 2024 3

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We’ve now entered the 7 day forecast window for our April 8th solar eclipse. This is a time where we can start making reasonable inferences as to what the weather pattern will look like next Monday. So, what are my thoughts on the forecast? Well, it depends.

WNY will likely be split between two areas of low pressure, one to our west and one to our east. It’s likely the one to our east will be a non-factor. To our west, that low will likely be flinging some elevated moisture in our direction. Model guidance does NOT suggest a rainout of a day. That’s fantastic news, likely killing a forecast with zero potential for breaks in the sky that is so common locally this time of year. That said, if you’re looking for a crystal clear sky, I’m not sure that’s the most likely outcome, either.

Some of that moisture will keep scattered clouds in the mix next Monday. I have a feeling some of that cloud cover will be thin enough to still be able to see the sun overhead. I also suspect there’s a reasonable chance for breaks in that cloud cover. That presents a case where luck & location overwhelm all other variables. Can we thread the needle between waves of clouds? Will a batch work overhead and spoil the show? There’s no way of knowing still a week out. From a general sense, I’m still encouraged. Anything shy of a complete soaker of a day is a victory in WNY. I don’t see that happening. Now we just need to find some time between waves of cloud cover, something that very much remains a possibility. To sum things up, here’s where my head is at for next Monday-

-It’ll be warm. We could be close to 60 degrees

-It WON’T be a soaker of a day. It probably doesn’t rain at all.

-I doubt the sky is crystal clear, but I also doubt the day is completely overcast. Some element of a “mixed” sky appears the most likely outcome right now.

This forecast will continue to evolve as the days wear on and model guidance gets a better feel. We’re still very much within a range where this forecast can change dramatically, for better or worse. For now, I don’t hate what I’m seeing. Here’s hoping we can build off that.

​ We’ve now entered the 7 day forecast window for our April 8th solar eclipse. This is a time where we can start making reasonable inferences as to what the weather pattern will look like next Monday. So, what are my thoughts on the forecast? Well, it depends.

WNY will likely be split between two areas of low pressure, one to our west and one to our east. It’s likely the one to our east will be a non-factor. To our west, that low will likely be flinging some elevated moisture in our direction. Model guidance does NOT suggest a rainout of a day. That’s fantastic news, likely killing a forecast with zero potential for breaks in the sky that is so common locally this time of year. That said, if you’re looking for a crystal clear sky, I’m not sure that’s the most likely outcome, either.

Some of that moisture will keep scattered clouds in the mix next Monday. I have a feeling some of that cloud cover will be thin enough to still be able to see the sun overhead. I also suspect there’s a reasonable chance for breaks in that cloud cover. That presents a case where luck & location overwhelm all other variables. Can we thread the needle between waves of clouds? Will a batch work overhead and spoil the show? There’s no way of knowing still a week out. From a general sense, I’m still encouraged. Anything shy of a complete soaker of a day is a victory in WNY. I don’t see that happening. Now we just need to find some time between waves of cloud cover, something that very much remains a possibility. To sum things up, here’s where my head is at for next Monday-

-It’ll be warm. We could be close to 60 degrees

-It WON’T be a soaker of a day. It probably doesn’t rain at all.

-I doubt the sky is crystal clear, but I also doubt the day is completely overcast. Some element of a “mixed” sky appears the most likely outcome right now.

This forecast will continue to evolve as the days wear on and model guidance gets a better feel. We’re still very much within a range where this forecast can change dramatically, for better or worse. For now, I don’t hate what I’m seeing. Here’s hoping we can build off that. Read More WeatherRochesterFirst  

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