Thad’s Three Things: Bills at Jets

Three things on my mind as the Bills get ready to open the season at the Jets…

Lesser of Two Lessers

I think for both the Bills and Jets, the offensive line is probably the weakest position group. Both teams also have young or new players that are legit cause for optimism. Everyone on the Bills side is deservedly excited about rookie O’Cyrus Torrence. Combined with free agent Connor McGovern, Buffalo should be much better at guard. The Jets have a couple first round picks–Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mekhi Becton–who are back after long term injuries last year.

Both squads obviously have lots riding on these lines because, well… the quarterbacks can’t ever get hurt. Super Bowl dreams for both die the moment either Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen can’t answer the bell.

I don’t think either team needs elite play from the guys upfront. Just be ok. Don’t force the QB to run for his life all night. Both have the potential to actually be pretty good even if it probably won’t happen in game one and especially not against the defensive lines that will be on the other side for this game (Quinnen Williams is one helluva welcome to the NFL assignment for Torrence).

Tell me the O-line that’s closest to competent and I feel pretty good about telling you who wins this game.

All The Way Back?

Tre White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer will play together Monday night for the first time since Thanksgiving, 2021. That’s 655 days (not including preseason) between snaps for the Bills All-Pro trio. It’s been a while.

There’s no doubt the Bills are going to be quite better in the secondary this year than they were last year just because those three guys are healthy. Yet, Hyde is right on the injury report week one this year. He had an official full practice on Friday and should be good to go, but it’s potentially a preview of what’s to come for the two safeties who are now well past 30 years old.

In addition, do they just drop in and pick up right where they left off? Again, I think they’ll be excellent, but some warm up time may be required for a return to full production. That not only goes for each player individually, but how they work together. The latter might be slowed further because there’s a new middle linebacker calling signals.

Poyer/Hyde/White are all former All-Pros. Can they play at that level again? Sure. Is it reasonable to expect that level? Probably not. The real question is how close do they get? And whatever that bar ends up being, for this particular game, the three secondary stars probably won’t be quite all the way there.

Let Kincaid (And Maybe Cook) Cook

This Jets defense is fantastic up front and fantastic on the corners. If you are going hit them, I’d be trying the relatively soft, creamy center.

C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams are playmakers, but Mosley is 31 and neither is anywhere close to super in coverage. At safety, Jordan Whitehead is solid, but not a star. Tony Adams is a undrafted free agent from 2022 who got a shot to win the job when Chuck Clark destroyed his knee in OTAs. There’s opportunity here for Buffalo.

Hello Dalton Kincaid.

This seems a game where you’d want to run a ton of two tight end formations and give the rookie a chance to prove he can make an immediate impact as a first rounder. He should be a matchup advantage against most of the Jets likely to man him up. Dawson Knox, James Cook… I’m looking at you, too.

Stefon Diggs is going to get his at some point in this game, but it won’t be easy and it can’t be something the Bills rely on. Diggs’ first snap against the Jets last year went for a 42 yard catch. After that, he and Gabe Davis totaled 12 catches and 152 yards over the final 119 minutes against Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. They’re probably the best corner duo in the league and should be avoided when possible.

I think having some success running Cook can make a big difference. Hit a couple inside handoffs on spread formations. At least make the Jets respect it.

Betting Things

I’m less a sports bettor this year and more someone who chases lines that are in my favor, but I’ll have a prop I like each week.

This week, I’m good with most unders. I think both defenses will be in better shape than both offenses that are still trying to incorporate major (Jets) and somewhat major (Bills) parts. On DraftKings, Davis under 46.5 yards, Cook under 43.5 yard rushing, Allen under 253.5 yards are all wise plays. I’d take any Jets receiver under except Garrett Wilson because who knows how any are going to fit into the offense or if Rodgers has enough protection to get anyone involved.

My official play for week one is the game Under 42.5 points on FanDuel at +142. The losing team didn’t score 20 in either matchup last year and I don’t think it happens again this year. It makes this alternate under quite enticing.

The Pick

I love this matchup. For week one, you don’t get much better in terms of high stakes. No matter who loses this game, Tuesday morning is going to be awful.

If it’s the Bills, questions whether the division has caught up will be everywhere. Is their Super Bowl window closed? Depending on how the game goes, are the rookies ready to be big pieces on offense? On defense, maybe the older guys don’t play up to former levels the Bills expect and or need.

If The Jets lose, well, then it’s easy. Aaron Rodgers is washed. The hype was all hype. Robert Saleh isn’t a capable coach. Same. Old. Jets.

For week one, these are relatively gigantic stakes. But, it’s still week one. Each team will have another game in six days and 15 more after that. It won’t really be the end of the world.

It’s still a divisional game which, as we’re often told, count as two. If the Jets are going to be a factor in the AFC East, you’d think they have to win those games at home.

I also think the schedule makers dealt Buffalo a huge break with this one. Catching this new Jets offense in their first game ever playing together is something that needs to be cashed in.

The Bills should (better) have a big advantage in coaching. It’s fair to wonder if there will be issues for Sean McDermott in his first game as head coach AND defensive play caller. While he joked that facing Rodgers isn’t exactly “easing him in” to the new role in charge of the defense, facing Jets offensive coordinator Nate Hackett couldn’t be easing in any more. I’ve never thought much of Hackett’s ability since he arrived in Buffalo and I expect Rodgers to do as much running the offense as anyone wearing green Monday night.

Regardless the coordinator, I believe the Bills offense to be more ready to go for game one. Their QB isn’t new. Their coordinator isn’t new. Most of their pieces aren’t new. It might only take 2 or 3 key offensive play to swing this contest.

I think the Bills will look like the better team most of the way Monday night. I’d be surprised if the game got out of hand and would expect the outcome to still be doubt deep into the fourth quarter. Turnovers will be typically vital to determining a winner, but barring that, give me the Bills 24-16.

​ Three things on my mind as the Bills get ready to open the season at the Jets…

Lesser of Two Lessers

I think for both the Bills and Jets, the offensive line is probably the weakest position group. Both teams also have young or new players that are legit cause for optimism. Everyone on the Bills side is deservedly excited about rookie O’Cyrus Torrence. Combined with free agent Connor McGovern, Buffalo should be much better at guard. The Jets have a couple first round picks–Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mekhi Becton–who are back after long term injuries last year.

Both squads obviously have lots riding on these lines because, well… the quarterbacks can’t ever get hurt. Super Bowl dreams for both die the moment either Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen can’t answer the bell.

I don’t think either team needs elite play from the guys upfront. Just be ok. Don’t force the QB to run for his life all night. Both have the potential to actually be pretty good even if it probably won’t happen in game one and especially not against the defensive lines that will be on the other side for this game (Quinnen Williams is one helluva welcome to the NFL assignment for Torrence).

Tell me the O-line that’s closest to competent and I feel pretty good about telling you who wins this game.

All The Way Back?

Tre White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer will play together Monday night for the first time since Thanksgiving, 2021. That’s 655 days (not including preseason) between snaps for the Bills All-Pro trio. It’s been a while.

There’s no doubt the Bills are going to be quite better in the secondary this year than they were last year just because those three guys are healthy. Yet, Hyde is right on the injury report week one this year. He had an official full practice on Friday and should be good to go, but it’s potentially a preview of what’s to come for the two safeties who are now well past 30 years old.

In addition, do they just drop in and pick up right where they left off? Again, I think they’ll be excellent, but some warm up time may be required for a return to full production. That not only goes for each player individually, but how they work together. The latter might be slowed further because there’s a new middle linebacker calling signals.

Poyer/Hyde/White are all former All-Pros. Can they play at that level again? Sure. Is it reasonable to expect that level? Probably not. The real question is how close do they get? And whatever that bar ends up being, for this particular game, the three secondary stars probably won’t be quite all the way there.

Let Kincaid (And Maybe Cook) Cook

This Jets defense is fantastic up front and fantastic on the corners. If you are going hit them, I’d be trying the relatively soft, creamy center.

C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams are playmakers, but Mosley is 31 and neither is anywhere close to super in coverage. At safety, Jordan Whitehead is solid, but not a star. Tony Adams is a undrafted free agent from 2022 who got a shot to win the job when Chuck Clark destroyed his knee in OTAs. There’s opportunity here for Buffalo.

Hello Dalton Kincaid.

This seems a game where you’d want to run a ton of two tight end formations and give the rookie a chance to prove he can make an immediate impact as a first rounder. He should be a matchup advantage against most of the Jets likely to man him up. Dawson Knox, James Cook… I’m looking at you, too.

Stefon Diggs is going to get his at some point in this game, but it won’t be easy and it can’t be something the Bills rely on. Diggs’ first snap against the Jets last year went for a 42 yard catch. After that, he and Gabe Davis totaled 12 catches and 152 yards over the final 119 minutes against Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. They’re probably the best corner duo in the league and should be avoided when possible.

I think having some success running Cook can make a big difference. Hit a couple inside handoffs on spread formations. At least make the Jets respect it.

Betting Things

I’m less a sports bettor this year and more someone who chases lines that are in my favor, but I’ll have a prop I like each week.

This week, I’m good with most unders. I think both defenses will be in better shape than both offenses that are still trying to incorporate major (Jets) and somewhat major (Bills) parts. On DraftKings, Davis under 46.5 yards, Cook under 43.5 yard rushing, Allen under 253.5 yards are all wise plays. I’d take any Jets receiver under except Garrett Wilson because who knows how any are going to fit into the offense or if Rodgers has enough protection to get anyone involved.

My official play for week one is the game Under 42.5 points on FanDuel at +142. The losing team didn’t score 20 in either matchup last year and I don’t think it happens again this year. It makes this alternate under quite enticing.

The Pick

I love this matchup. For week one, you don’t get much better in terms of high stakes. No matter who loses this game, Tuesday morning is going to be awful.

If it’s the Bills, questions whether the division has caught up will be everywhere. Is their Super Bowl window closed? Depending on how the game goes, are the rookies ready to be big pieces on offense? On defense, maybe the older guys don’t play up to former levels the Bills expect and or need.

If The Jets lose, well, then it’s easy. Aaron Rodgers is washed. The hype was all hype. Robert Saleh isn’t a capable coach. Same. Old. Jets.

For week one, these are relatively gigantic stakes. But, it’s still week one. Each team will have another game in six days and 15 more after that. It won’t really be the end of the world.

It’s still a divisional game which, as we’re often told, count as two. If the Jets are going to be a factor in the AFC East, you’d think they have to win those games at home.

I also think the schedule makers dealt Buffalo a huge break with this one. Catching this new Jets offense in their first game ever playing together is something that needs to be cashed in.

The Bills should (better) have a big advantage in coaching. It’s fair to wonder if there will be issues for Sean McDermott in his first game as head coach AND defensive play caller. While he joked that facing Rodgers isn’t exactly “easing him in” to the new role in charge of the defense, facing Jets offensive coordinator Nate Hackett couldn’t be easing in any more. I’ve never thought much of Hackett’s ability since he arrived in Buffalo and I expect Rodgers to do as much running the offense as anyone wearing green Monday night.

Regardless the coordinator, I believe the Bills offense to be more ready to go for game one. Their QB isn’t new. Their coordinator isn’t new. Most of their pieces aren’t new. It might only take 2 or 3 key offensive play to swing this contest.

I think the Bills will look like the better team most of the way Monday night. I’d be surprised if the game got out of hand and would expect the outcome to still be doubt deep into the fourth quarter. Turnovers will be typically vital to determining a winner, but barring that, give me the Bills 24-16. Read More Buffalo BillsRochesterFirst