WNY Fall Foliage 2023: Faster to arrive, more vibrant than last year

Attention leaf peepers! Mounting evidence suggests our 2023 fall color will be especially vibrant this year. The science behind the transition of foliage changing from summer greens to fall reds, oranges & yellows is complex. WNY’s many microclimates also complicate matters making it difficult to generalize how things will play out. That said, there are a suite of ingredients that appear favorable for this season’s display to pop (and likely pop earlier than last year).

Our summer has largely been wetter compared to the last several years. This steady dose of moisture has prevented significant drought conditions from developing across most (but not all) of the region. In fact, you can see the difference this year vs. last below…

This should support color arriving faster than last year, something we’re already slowly seeing play out in the very early stages. It also minimizes stress that can otherwise mute fall color. From here, the ideal setup for vibrant color leans on warm, sunny days and cool (but not below freezing) nights. That warm sunshine helps the production of sugars which, in turn, get trapped in the leaf as temperatures drop during the night. Our pattern in the weeks ahead appears relatively supportive of such conditions, an encouraging sign of things to come.

While these broad ingredients remain favorable, Mother Nature can ruin a good thing in a hurry. An early season hard freeze or potent wind storm (of which we become increasingly susceptible to this time of year) can quickly put an end to the party. These more specific elements cannot be ironed on beyond a week’s time, meaning there are most certainly variables that can affect this forecast that remain out of our control. Shy of that, I think there’s a solid argument to be made this will be one of our better fall color displays of the last several years. Happy hunting!

​ Attention leaf peepers! Mounting evidence suggests our 2023 fall color will be especially vibrant this year. The science behind the transition of foliage changing from summer greens to fall reds, oranges & yellows is complex. WNY’s many microclimates also complicate matters making it difficult to generalize how things will play out. That said, there are a suite of ingredients that appear favorable for this season’s display to pop (and likely pop earlier than last year).

Our summer has largely been wetter compared to the last several years. This steady dose of moisture has prevented significant drought conditions from developing across most (but not all) of the region. In fact, you can see the difference this year vs. last below…

There are many variables that go into how vivid fall color plays out. Summer rain is a big one. Seen below, the drought monitor from last year (left) to now (right). More rainfall this summer combined with sunny days & cool nights ahead could make this fall's color REALLY good. pic.twitter.com/TreNvdjErT

— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx) September 14, 2023

This should support color arriving faster than last year, something we’re already slowly seeing play out in the very early stages. It also minimizes stress that can otherwise mute fall color. From here, the ideal setup for vibrant color leans on warm, sunny days and cool (but not below freezing) nights. That warm sunshine helps the production of sugars which, in turn, get trapped in the leaf as temperatures drop during the night. Our pattern in the weeks ahead appears relatively supportive of such conditions, an encouraging sign of things to come.

With several chilly nights on the way (& summer's days numbered), it's easy to assume warmth is in the rearview mirror. The pattern ahead suggests otherwise. Our temps lean warmer than average in the 6-10 & 8-14 day temperature probability outlooks. pic.twitter.com/6oZjmJ5k3y

— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx) September 14, 2023

While these broad ingredients remain favorable, Mother Nature can ruin a good thing in a hurry. An early season hard freeze or potent wind storm (of which we become increasingly susceptible to this time of year) can quickly put an end to the party. These more specific elements cannot be ironed on beyond a week’s time, meaning there are most certainly variables that can affect this forecast that remain out of our control. Shy of that, I think there’s a solid argument to be made this will be one of our better fall color displays of the last several years. Happy hunting! Read More NewsRochesterFirst